Prediction accuracy
Verified against real finish lines.
When we say PIRX delivers the most accurate race-time projection on the market, that claim is measured — not marketed. Every projection below was locked in before the gun went off, then scored against the official result.
97.4%
Mean prediction accuracy
7s
Median absolute miss (1.92%)
99%
Inside the Supported Range (107/108)
108
Verified races, 29 athletes
108 eligible races · 29 athletes · 1500m–10K, track & road · March 28 – July 1, 2026. Aggregates only; athlete-level data is never published.
How the misses distribute
The median miss across all 108 eligible races is 7 seconds — 1.92% of the finish time. Here is how tightly the projections landed:
- Within 2% of the projection53%
- Within 5% of the projection86%
- Inside the Supported Range99%
Methodology
Predictions are locked before the race
Every projection in the tracker was generated by the live PIRX engine before the athlete raced. Nothing is back-fitted after the result is known.
Results come from real finish lines
125 raced predictions were logged between March 28 and July 1, 2026, across 29 athletes racing 1500m to 10K on track and road.
Exclusions are documented, not silent
17 races were excluded for documented reasons — tactical (sit-and-kick) racing, mid-race injury or illness, and corrupt or incomplete wearable data. 108 races were eligible for scoring.
Both directions count
The median signed error is +0.5 seconds — 54 athletes ran slightly slower than projected, 50 ran faster, 4 hit it exactly. There is no systematic bias toward optimistic or pessimistic numbers.
Why we publish a Supported Range
A single number pretends to a precision no model has. Every PIRX projection ships with a Supported Range — the window the engine can actually defend from your data. When your data is thin, the range widens instead of the number lying. 107 of 108 verified races finished inside it.
The tracker currently covers 1500m–10K, where PIRX has raced athletes to verify against. As road-race volume grows, we will extend the verified set to the half marathon and marathon and update this page with the same methodology.
See what the engine says about you — free
Enter one recent race result and get your projected finish time with its Supported Range. No account, no wearable required.