Model & Risk
Source: (inline in performance/page.tsx)
What You See
A card with four items: Projection Source (physiology-based projection), confidence (high, moderate, or low), Injury Risk (a score out of 100), and a note when the range is still wide because there is less data.
How the Numbers Work
The number on screen is a physiology-based projection. PIRX fits race-equivalency curves to your own races and applies rule-based driver scores (Aerobic Base, Threshold Density, Speed Exposure, Load Consistency, Running Economy). Those drivers add up to a time change in seconds. Confidence is high when 80% or above, moderate at 60-79%, and low below 60%. A wider Supported Range means less race and training data is in yet. It tightens as more of your races come in.
Step by Step
Method used: race-equivalency curves and rule-based driver scores
- Anchor the projection to a real race you have run.
- Score the five drivers from your own training. Each score maps to seconds gained or lost.
- Sum those seconds onto the race anchor. That sum is the Projected Time.
- Set the Supported Range from how much race and training data is in. Injury risk uses the same rule-based inputs: ACWR, load spike, weekly distance change, pace variance, sleep, and HRV. Bands: below 0.35 = Low (green), 0.35-0.60 = Moderate (yellow), 0.60+ = High (red).