Performance Summary

Source: (inline in performance/page.tsx)

---

What You See

Three cards in a row at the top. They show: Improvement (how many seconds faster you are on 5K compared to your baseline), 21-Day change (how many seconds changed in the last 3 weeks), and Readiness (your score out of 100).

How the Numbers Work

Improvement is the total seconds gained or lost since your baseline race. 21-Day change is simply today's projection minus the projection from 21 days ago. Readiness is the same score shown on the dashboard ring.

Step by Step

Models & algorithms used: Gradient Boosting

Improvement = baseline time minus current projected time in seconds. The baseline comes from the 5-tier detection cascade (race effort, sustained effort, discounted P10, adjusted median, or 25:00 default -- see Projection Tile). The current projected time is the midpoint from the latest projection engine run. 21-Day change = midpoint from 21 days ago (read from the projection_history table) minus today's midpoint. Readiness is the headline score from the readiness engine (heuristic weighted sum or Gradient Boosting Classifier depending on race-outcome count -- see Readiness Ring). All three arrive pre-computed.